Hello
I still dont see clear waves count this week. Market is very slow - so I'm waiting with it
8/28/2012
8/23/2012
AUD/NZD buy signal
AUD/NZD Buy stop 1.28395. SL 1.28200. Based on what I have written about it yesterday: HERE
GBP/USD close to sell signal
GBP/USD reach ideal Fibo grouping level - end of possible wave C on D1.
Momentum on H1 should give sell signal after this bar.
I will put sell stop on about 1.58890
8/22/2012
EUR/USD update of situation
Well short after my post there was a strong brake of those levels.
Let me show You next possible level of retrace:
And now H1 - Momentum is far from singal so there was no danger of opening position:
Let me show You next possible level of retrace:
And now H1 - Momentum is far from singal so there was no danger of opening position:
EUR/USD situation
Now its time for the most popular EUR/USD
Firstly wider look on this pair. I will do it step by step.
So D1:
There is no doubt we had down trend.
Now its simple ABC correction (it can be something bigger but lets look on what its "closer" to us)
There was A, B now it should be C.
Only Fibo on this screen is last wave down retrace and now price is around 61,8% of it.
Lets go further:
Here its is close look on just AB - possible C formation. 3 Fibo are - A wave projection from B. And 100% (most probable) is on 100% zone.
Next Fibo is reverse projection of wave B - 127,2 is in blue zone and its typical level.
There is also outside projection of wave A and 127,2% is also in blue zone.
So lets conclude: there are not 4 fibo (61,8% of D1 retrace also) levels.
Lets move to H4 leaving blue zone:
There is 3 waves move (it can be abc, or 123) but price stoped almost to pips in 161,8% of wave A from B projectio - what is most typical for wave 3 - but also for wave C. There is another level 161,8% for outside projection of wave A - but bottom of wave B is so close to wave A begin that is should looks like that.
Conclude - EUR/USD is in very strong resistance now. I have already yesterday USA session opened short but I closed it after Momentum made reverse. Now I'm just looking on H1 momentum short signal and open position,
Firstly wider look on this pair. I will do it step by step.
So D1:
There is no doubt we had down trend.
Now its simple ABC correction (it can be something bigger but lets look on what its "closer" to us)
There was A, B now it should be C.
Only Fibo on this screen is last wave down retrace and now price is around 61,8% of it.
Lets go further:
Next Fibo is reverse projection of wave B - 127,2 is in blue zone and its typical level.
There is also outside projection of wave A and 127,2% is also in blue zone.
So lets conclude: there are not 4 fibo (61,8% of D1 retrace also) levels.
Lets move to H4 leaving blue zone:
There is 3 waves move (it can be abc, or 123) but price stoped almost to pips in 161,8% of wave A from B projectio - what is most typical for wave 3 - but also for wave C. There is another level 161,8% for outside projection of wave A - but bottom of wave B is so close to wave A begin that is should looks like that.
Conclude - EUR/USD is in very strong resistance now. I have already yesterday USA session opened short but I closed it after Momentum made reverse. Now I'm just looking on H1 momentum short signal and open position,
First One AUD/NZD
Let me start with something that really shocked me as very high probable bottom of AUD/NZD.
Sorry for mess in Fibo - but nothing that can be made more on MT4.
So Firstly we have an ABC correction on D1.
Typical bottom for wave C is 100% of wave A projection. Retracement of last move up: 61,8%.
So there are 2 of them.
But going to H4 shows more:
There is 1-4 move here and now I'm looking for bottom of wave 5. And typical for it it is: 100% of wave 1 projection - this is here.
78,6 of 1-3projection it is here.
So there are 4 of most probable Fibo group in 10pips range for D1 and H4. That can be really good trade. But in few days. Patience needed.
Sorry for mess in Fibo - but nothing that can be made more on MT4.
So Firstly we have an ABC correction on D1.
Typical bottom for wave C is 100% of wave A projection. Retracement of last move up: 61,8%.
So there are 2 of them.
But going to H4 shows more:
There is 1-4 move here and now I'm looking for bottom of wave 5. And typical for it it is: 100% of wave 1 projection - this is here.
78,6 of 1-3projection it is here.
So there are 4 of most probable Fibo group in 10pips range for D1 and H4. That can be really good trade. But in few days. Patience needed.
Few analysis after long break
As I have written I'm working on portal about brokers.
It's taking me a lot of time - but its hard for trader to give up what he really loves ;) Thats mean trading.
So I have to confess that I was trying and testing few systems - also still skalp with my old system - but I feel that I'm missing something.
Its wider look on market - and analysis. So I decided that I will still trade with Fibo/Elliot/Momentum system.
Main Time Frame is: H4
Entry is on: H1
Signals: When price on H4 will reach possible retrace zone correct with Elliot wave count and there will be at least 2 most probable Fibo levels (for example for wave C it will be inside reverse of last move, projection of wave A from bottom of wave B etc)
that means there can be signal.
Second: Momentum (DTOSC 13,8,5,5)has to be in oversold/overbuy zone.
Those are 3 (Elliot, Fibo grouping, Momentum) signals and than I'm going to second Time Frame: H1.
When Momentum (DTOSC 21,13,8,8) on H1 will give signal (cross of lines in trade direction in oversold/overbuy zone) there will be orders:
Opening position will be 1pips under or 1pips + spread over signal H1 bar.
Always 2 positions: Long Term and Short Term.
Stop Loss will be over last low/high for both.
Short term position manage:
Target for short term is first most possible level. So that will be most often 50% of last wave - or 38,2 if it can be wave 3.
After reaching that level SL will be traill below/over last H1 bar.
If there will be opposite singal on Momentum (DTOSC 21,13,8,8) position will be trail just as it would reach target (trail +1 pips below/under last H1 bar)
Long term position manage:
Target for Long Term is far but possible. So for example if it's open on bottom of wave B - target will be most possible end of wave C (typical ABC correction)
But manage will be a little bit more complicated.
First - after reaching target of Short Position - SL will be moved to BE.
Second after second singal on H1 momentum after opening SL will be moved over last low/high before that signal.
After H4 Momentum (DTOSC 13,8,5,5) will give opposite signal trade will be trail stop below/over last H4 bar.
After reaching target it will be traill over last H1 bar.
So thats all - soon analysis ;)
It's taking me a lot of time - but its hard for trader to give up what he really loves ;) Thats mean trading.
So I have to confess that I was trying and testing few systems - also still skalp with my old system - but I feel that I'm missing something.
Its wider look on market - and analysis. So I decided that I will still trade with Fibo/Elliot/Momentum system.
Main Time Frame is: H4
Entry is on: H1
Signals: When price on H4 will reach possible retrace zone correct with Elliot wave count and there will be at least 2 most probable Fibo levels (for example for wave C it will be inside reverse of last move, projection of wave A from bottom of wave B etc)
that means there can be signal.
Second: Momentum (DTOSC 13,8,5,5)has to be in oversold/overbuy zone.
Those are 3 (Elliot, Fibo grouping, Momentum) signals and than I'm going to second Time Frame: H1.
When Momentum (DTOSC 21,13,8,8) on H1 will give signal (cross of lines in trade direction in oversold/overbuy zone) there will be orders:
Opening position will be 1pips under or 1pips + spread over signal H1 bar.
Always 2 positions: Long Term and Short Term.
Stop Loss will be over last low/high for both.
Short term position manage:
Target for short term is first most possible level. So that will be most often 50% of last wave - or 38,2 if it can be wave 3.
After reaching that level SL will be traill below/over last H1 bar.
If there will be opposite singal on Momentum (DTOSC 21,13,8,8) position will be trail just as it would reach target (trail +1 pips below/under last H1 bar)
Long term position manage:
Target for Long Term is far but possible. So for example if it's open on bottom of wave B - target will be most possible end of wave C (typical ABC correction)
But manage will be a little bit more complicated.
First - after reaching target of Short Position - SL will be moved to BE.
Second after second singal on H1 momentum after opening SL will be moved over last low/high before that signal.
After H4 Momentum (DTOSC 13,8,5,5) will give opposite signal trade will be trail stop below/over last H4 bar.
After reaching target it will be traill over last H1 bar.
So thats all - soon analysis ;)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)